Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, achieved a surprisingly strong victory in the initial round of Brazil's presidential election, aligning with a recent surge of right-wing candidates supported by figures like Donald Trump across Latin America.
Despite a narrowing lead in the final weeks before the election, most pre-election surveys had indicated incumbent President Inácio Lula da Silva held a single-digit advantage. With nearly all votes tallied (99%), Bolsonaro secured 47.2% compared to Lula's 44.9%, an outcome that defied widespread predictions favoring Lula.
The unexpected results immediately prompted questions regarding the accuracy of electoral polling.
Polling Discrepancies and Regional Strength
This significant disparity between predictions and reality is expected to bolster the Brazilian right and the Bolsonaro campaign, which has consistently argued that the nation's prominent polling organizations exhibit a bias towards Lula and his Workers' Party. Past elections, specifically in 2022 and 2018, also saw polling figures that underestimated Jair Bolsonaro's support, though the extent of the miscalculation in the current election was notably more pronounced.
Flavio Bolsonaro demonstrated exceptional strength in his traditional strongholds within southern Brazil, securing substantial victories in the country's three most populous states:
- In São Paulo, Brazil's largest state, Bolsonaro garnered 52% of the vote against Lula's 38%.
- In Minas Gerais, often considered Brazil's historical 'bellwether state,' Bolsonaro led Lula 48% to 43%.
- In his home state of Rio de Janeiro, he defeated the incumbent president with 53% compared to 39%.
Conversely, Lula achieved considerable margins in his traditional strongholds in the Northeast, winning in vote-rich states such as Bahia, Pernambuco, and Ceará. However, these victories were insufficient to overcome Bolsonaro's unprecedented electoral performance in the southern regions of Brazil.
A Broader Conservative Wave and Political Implications
Flavio Bolsonaro maintained a close alliance with Donald Trump throughout his campaign, with the former U.S. president openly expressing his intent to see the long-standing geopolitical rival, Lula, removed from office.
This surprising outcome in Brazil is the latest in a series of conservative victories witnessed across Latin America, which has recently seen a shift towards right-leaning candidates in countries including Chile, Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia.
The election results are likely to trigger a period of intense reflection for the Brazilian left, potentially leading to discussions about the strategic wisdom of Lula's candidacy. At 80 years old, having completed three presidential terms and aspiring to a fourth, Lula was widely perceived as the sole figure capable of unifying Brazil's often fragmented and contentious left-wing factions.
Lula's political career is marked by one of history's most remarkable comebacks. After being imprisoned on corruption charges, he was subsequently released by the nation's Supreme Court and went on to narrowly defeat incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in a fiercely contested 2022 election.
Notably, he had pledged to serve only a single term as president in 2022, a promise he later rescinded. This decision now appears poised to backfire in what is almost certainly his final electoral campaign.
The Road to the Second Round
Flavio Bolsonaro is set to face incumbent Lula in a second-round election scheduled for October 25. Bolsonaro enters this next phase with several inherent advantages. Beyond his impressive nationwide performance and the debunking of pre-election polls, he is also expected to secure the vast majority of votes from major third-party candidates, including Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema.
Collectively, these four candidates garnered nearly 8% of the vote. While it remains uncertain if all will issue endorsements, it is anticipated that Caiado and Zema will back Bolsonaro, whereas Cury and Santos are unlikely to make any formal endorsement.
Should Flavio Bolsonaro be elected, it is considered highly probable that he would facilitate the release of his father and senior Brazilian military officers, who are currently incarcerated on charges related to an alleged plot to remain in power following the 2022 election.
The election also saw other members of the Bolsonaro family achieve higher office: Jair Bolsonaro's wife, Michelly, was elected as a senator, as was another son, Carlos, while his son Renan secured a position as a federal deputy.
Bolsonaro's Liberal Party also performed strongly in races for both chambers of Brazil's Congress, particularly in the Senate, where they are projected to hold 29 seats, significantly more than Lula's Workers' Party, which is expected to secure just 9.
