PROVO, Utah — Tyler Robinson, accused in the killing of Charlie Kirk, is scheduled to appear in a Utah courtroom Tuesday for a hearing that could significantly alter the course of his case. A judge is expected to weigh whether prosecutors have demonstrated sufficient probable cause to support an aggravated murder charge, which could make Robinson eligible for the death penalty. Additionally, the suspect may be asked to enter a plea for the first time, nearly a year after the alleged slaying.
Robinson, a 23-year-old from Washington, Utah, faces allegations of firing a single fatal shot that killed Kirk, a 31-year-old father of two, during a Turning Point USA event at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah, on September 10, 2025.
Skye Lazaro, a Salt Lake City-based defense attorney not involved in the case, commented on the legal standard for such proceedings. “We’re at a preliminary hearing stage, so we’re at a very low burden,” Lazaro explained. “It’s probable cause, and everything is taken in a light most favorable to the state.”
The court previously conducted a week-long hearing in early July, after which both sides were given several weeks to submit legal briefs before Judge Graf's anticipated decision on Tuesday.
Crucial Hearing to Determine Case Trajectory
Lazaro anticipates that the entire case, including the single aggravating factor that makes the aggravated murder charge eligible for the death penalty, will be bound over for trial. This aggravating factor alleges that Robinson endangered other individuals by shooting Kirk in a crowded setting.
Greg Rogers, a former FBI agent and SWAT sniper who now instructs at Utah Valley University, believes the alleged risk to the assembled crowd should be sufficient to uphold the aggravating factor at this stage. Rogers noted that even highly trained law enforcement snipers would consider such a shot inherently dangerous. “When you have a rank amateur that is shooting, it’s clearly, clearly very dangerous,” he stated.
Conversely, Robinson’s defense team has challenged the aggravating factor by arguing that only one shot was fired, from an elevated position, which traveled over the crowd rather than through it, and struck only Kirk.
Prosecutors have countered this by asserting that Robinson was an unskilled shooter, one who “seldom hit the bullseye and sometimes misses the target completely” during practice sessions with the suspected murder weapon.
Evidence Presented Against Robinson
Among the evidence presented against Robinson is the alleged murder weapon, a .30-06 Mauser rifle, which prosecutors claim belonged to his grandfather and carried Robinson’s DNA. Court documents indicate that Robinson allegedly confessed to multiple individuals, including his roommate and romantic partner, Lance Twiggs.
“This is likely as straightforward a bindover decision as this Court will ever see,” prosecutors wrote in court filings. They added that after admitting to several friends, including his roommate and romantic partner, that he assassinated Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University on September 10, 2025, in front of approximately 3,000 eyewitnesses, Robinson surrendered to law enforcement for the crime.
Additional evidence presented by the prosecution includes surveillance video, ballistic findings, an alleged handwritten confession, and statements from witnesses. In one message reportedly sent to Twiggs, Robinson allegedly wrote, “I had the opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk, and I took it.”
Arraignment and Future Legal Battles
A court spokesperson indicated last week that Judge Graf may or may not hold an arraignment after rendering a decision on whether there is sufficient probable cause to refer the case to trial. If an arraignment takes place, it would mark the first time Robinson is formally asked to enter a plea.
“I would expect that they would enter not guilty pleas and move forward,” Lazaro remarked. She further suggested that any alternative plea would likely necessitate an agreement to remove the death penalty as an option. “I think the state has been so assertive on their position about the death penalty in this case that I don’t see them doing that right now,” Lazaro concluded.
A source close to the Kirk family confirmed last week that Kirk’s widow, Erika, and his parents, Rob and Kathy, intend to attend the September 1 hearing together, mirroring their presence during the July proceedings.
Even if the case progresses, Lazaro foresees that pretrial legal maneuvers will continue for an extended period. “I do think we’re going to see a lot more litigation come down the road in terms of 1102 and expert-witness designations, forensic testimony on the ballistics and things like that,” Lazaro stated.
